Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 2.408717 2.827160 3.291759 3.845159 4.485691 5.203059 6.066709
2025-11-02 1.648116 2.173490 2.822271 3.679289 4.778319 6.136824 7.939592
2025-11-09 1.174169 1.709719 2.433189 3.475170 4.929498 6.878131 9.676077
2025-11-16 0.905091 1.435027 2.207963 3.405745 5.200612 7.772211 11.712670
2025-11-23 0.725907 1.240911 2.044456 3.371840 5.487093 8.697324 13.897067
2025-11-30 0.631616 1.153737 2.017968 3.527291 6.063840 10.108602 16.978125
2025-12-07 0.534185 1.038371 1.920245 3.542019 6.404581 11.180953 19.651661
2025-12-14 0.453112 0.933789 1.819077 3.527307 6.682477 12.171430 22.299453
2025-12-21 0.390627 0.850499 1.739410 3.533198 6.988728 13.236026 25.190628
2025-12-28 0.370540 0.846772 1.807174 3.822534 7.849436 15.376164 30.238108
2026-01-04 0.332022 0.796633 1.774300 3.907621 8.327977 16.866983 34.257934
2026-01-11 0.301073 0.756698 1.754948 4.015124 8.861292 18.516648 38.758471
2026-01-18 0.265023 0.699288 1.691683 4.026543 9.213279 19.881709 42.922465
2026-01-25 0.224346 0.622458 1.572556 3.897605 9.252536 20.629355 45.951402
2026-02-01 0.185980 0.542869 1.432558 3.697290 9.104606 20.968085 48.172493
2026-02-08 0.160986 0.492789 1.354297 3.629084 9.244465 21.934970 51.844116
2026-02-15 0.141329 0.452923 1.294242 3.595013 9.457971 23.086441 56.050995
2026-02-22 0.132883 0.443540 1.311843 3.760885 10.178179 25.467131 63.294980
2026-03-01 0.119375 0.415806 1.274816 3.776795 10.525196 27.017607 68.787137
2026-03-08 0.106435 0.386824 1.229009 3.761258 10.788884 28.398899 74.031760
2026-03-15 0.095792 0.362807 1.193144 3.767552 11.110727 29.958013 79.877603
2026-03-22 0.094958 0.371979 1.258143 4.074965 12.289937 33.787097 91.738289
2026-03-29 0.088046 0.358201 1.250170 4.165354 12.879657 36.178592 100.225137